As the US-Iran conflict enters its second week, the global energy market is once again under pressure, with crude oil prices surpassing $100 per barrel, reaching a new high since the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. Over the past seven days, gasoline prices in the US have risen by 43 cents, and the surge in energy costs has sparked concerns about a resurgence of inflation. In this context, traditional safe-haven assets like gold and the stock market have generally retreated, while Bitcoin has demonstrated unexpected resilience, trading steadily around $69,166.
Despite market sentiment briefly plunging into a state of “extreme fear,” inflows into cryptocurrency funds have not ceased, indicating that some institutional investors still view digital assets as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty. According to data from Alternative.me, although the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is at a low level, the movement of funds suggests that potential buying pressure is accumulating.
The rise in energy prices should typically suppress the performance of risk assets, as heightened inflation expectations may delay the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, thereby tightening liquidity. However, some analysts point out that history shows US military actions in the Middle East are often accompanied by fiscal expansion and monetary easing, which could provide long-term support for Bitcoin. Hayes, founder of the Maelstrom fund, believes that war-driven monetary overexpansion will strengthen Bitcoin's narrative as “digital gold.” The fund has significantly increased its holdings in BTC and selected altcoins, positioning itself for 2026.
Meanwhile, Iran's approximately $7.8 billion crypto economy is facing sanctions pressure, leading to noticeable increases in privacy coins like Monero and Zcash. The decentralized finance (DeFi News) sector is also showing activity, with projects like ETHFI and MORPHO yielding returns that surpass Bitcoin. CoinMarketCap's “Altcoin Season” indicator has risen from a low of 22 in February to 36, indicating a revival of diverse market momentum.
The future development of the situation will remain highly dependent on geopolitical trends and monetary policy responses. Bitcoin's demonstrated independence amid multiple shocks continues to attract attention in an environment of heightened macro volatility.