In March 2025, UBS analysts published their latest research note forecasting a notable medium-term rebound for the pound against the franc (GBPCHF), even as the Swiss currency continues to benefit from safe-haven demand in the near term. The call rests on diverging economic paths between the UK and Switzerland, along with subtle shifts in the global policy mix.
UBS noted that while sterling still grapples with structural adjustments post-Brexit, recent economic data have shown signs of stabilization. With easing inflation pressures, a resilient labor market, and the market growing more comfortable with a potential Bank of England rate-cut cycle, the pound is finding support. At the same time, the Swiss National Bank remains accommodative, yet inflation has settled around 1.2%, well below the eurozone average, reducing the internal momentum for further franc appreciation.
From a historical perspective, GBPCHF tends to exhibit pronounced swings during periods of market stress. During the 2016 Brexit referendum, the pair plunged near 1.20, only to climb back to around 1.35 by early 2023. Technically, UBS highlights support at 1.12 and resistance clustered around 1.18. Should UK economic data continue to improve alongside a broader uptick in risk appetite, the pair may break out of its range-bound pattern and embark on an upward trajectory.
The franc’s strength is rooted in a robust economic backdrop: persistent current-account surpluses above 8% of GDP, political neutrality, low inflation, and a solid financial system that consistently draws safe-haven flows during turbulent times. However, with inflation cooling, the SNB’s need to counter franc appreciation diminishes, allowing the market’s perception of the franc’s “risk-free” premium to normalize.
By contrast, the pound lacks the franc’s safe-haven sheen, yet its relatively higher rates remain attractive to income-focused investors. Markets are reassessing whether to prioritize stability or chase relative returns, and this trade-off will form the core logic behind GBPCHF’s trajectory in the coming months.
Overall, UBS is not dismissing near-term headwinds but places greater emphasis on potential structural shifts over the medium term. If the UK’s recovery outpaces expectations while Swiss growth momentum cools, GBPCHF could embark on a sustained rebound.