Bitcoin's current price is oscillating around $69,000, with multiple on-chain indicators suggesting weakening market momentum. A significant decline in the capital held by short-term holders (STH) has sparked disagreement among traders regarding the trend's direction. Data shows that the market capitalization of BTC held by STHs has decreased from approximately $437 billion on April 7th to $390 billion. This drop is similar to previous instances where the market experienced sharp corrections. For example, the price once dipped to $78,000 the next day (April 8th) before rebounding to break through $108,000. Historical patterns suggest that we may currently be at a similar emotional inflection point.
The rising NVT ratio indicates that price movements lack support from genuine on-chain transaction volume, while the STH-MVRV indicator's low value of 0.76 further confirms that retail investors are generally losing money and exiting the market. Simultaneously, the Coinbase premium has turned negative (-0.0048), reflecting increasing selling pressure from institutional investors. Analysts point out that this "engine without power" state is a strong warning signal, and any brief price stabilization or rebound is unlikely to be sustained without accompanying trading volume.
Notably, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of approximately $568 million last week, marking the second consecutive week of capital returning. However, daily data shows significant fluctuations—strong inflows at the beginning of the week were followed by a single-day net outflow of nearly $350 million on Friday. This "three steps forward, two steps back" rhythm indicates that while long-term funds are becoming cautiously optimistic, short-term investors remain highly vigilant, and the market has not yet formed a unified consensus.