Can Bitcoin Break $70,000? Analysis of Short-Term Holder Losses and Selling Pressure

As of March 9th, Bitcoin's Short-Term Holder SOPR (STH SOPR) hovers around 0.987, indicating that recent investors are still selling assets at a loss. This data reflects significant selling pressure in the market, especially from those who entered positions near the end of 2025 when prices approached a high of $120,000 and are now generally in a state of deep unrealized losses.

Currently, Bitcoin's price is consolidating in the $65,000 to $70,000 range, having previously corrected sharply from highs of $110,000 to $115,000. Notably, the 200-period moving average on the three-day chart remains above $88,000, forming strong technical resistance. This means that even if the market rebounds, it faces significant upward pressure in the short term.

From an on-chain data perspective, the decline in the supply held by short-term holders may stem from two scenarios: first, investors choosing to cut losses and exit the market, and second, some holders naturally transitioning into long-term holders over time. However, the current large gap between the market price and the realized cost suggests that the market is still burdened with a large amount of "unlocking demand" – once the market recovers, these trapped tokens may be released in concentration, suppressing the potential for price recovery.