On Monday, international oil prices saw a significant decline, while the cryptocurrency market experienced a moderate uptick, influenced by former U.S. President Donald Trump's contradictory statements regarding the situation in Iran. In a phone interview with CBS News, he suggested that military conflict with Iran might soon come to an end, stating that U.S. forces had struck over 3,000 Iranian targets in the first week and mentioned the elimination of "easily destroyable" facilities, making it difficult for Iran to rebuild its national capabilities.
However, on the same day, Trump shifted his tone at a Republican fundraising event in Florida, stating, "While we have achieved some victories, we have not yet reached our ultimate goal," emphasizing that efforts would continue to "completely end this long-term threat." This inconsistency in his remarks has raised market concerns, making it difficult for investors to determine whether the conflict will truly ease.
Augustine Fan, partner and research director at crypto analytics firm SignalPlus, pointed out that such political statements are often hard to take at face value, especially considering that his cabinet members still indicate that the conflict is in its early stages, with U.S. military forces continuing to be deployed in the Middle East. He anticipates that geopolitical tensions will not quickly dissipate in the short term, and mainstream crypto assets like Bitcoin may perform relatively well amid turmoil due to their safe-haven attributes.
Andri Fauzan Adziima, research director at Bitrue, analyzed that if the situation in Iran does indeed ease quickly as Trump suggests, the market could see a strong rebound, primarily benefiting from falling oil prices alleviating inflationary pressures, a cooling of geopolitical risk sentiment, and a resurgence in demand for risk assets. However, the current responses from Iran remain unclear, and uncertainties in diplomatic and military aspects persist, keeping market vigilance high regarding a "false easing."
Overall, while falling oil prices are favorable for risk assets, the upward momentum in the crypto market remains constrained by the ambiguity of geopolitical factors, leading investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach for clearer signals.