Investment giant Ray Dalio has recently raised doubts about the reliability of Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, while emphasizing the increasingly solid position of gold in the global reserve system. Although he previously suggested that investors allocate about 15% of their portfolios to Bitcoin and gold to hedge against debt inflation and currency devaluation risks, he pointed out that Bitcoin's performance during market turmoil is more akin to that of a risk asset rather than a traditional store of value.
Dalio analyzed that Bitcoin's price often fluctuates in sync with tech stocks, and during financial market pressures, investors tend to prioritize selling Bitcoin to cover losses in other positions, which undermines its function as a "crisis buffer." Additionally, he mentioned the limitations of Bitcoin's network in terms of transaction privacy and the potential threat that future quantum computing may pose to existing cryptographic mechanisms, further questioning its long-term stability as a reserve asset.
In stark contrast, gold has demonstrated greater resilience amid market fluctuations during the same period. While Bitcoin steadily rose from July to early October, it subsequently plummeted due to an overall collapse in the crypto market, leading to the liquidation of approximately $20 billion in leveraged positions, with prices falling over 45% from their peak to around $68,420. In contrast, gold prices continued to climb, showing no significant impact, further validating its historical status as a global reserve asset.
Dalio believes that the current global financial order is undergoing a transformation, with the traditional U.S.-centric system facing multiple pressures. In this context, the focus of asset allocation is gradually shifting towards more certain and historically validated assets, making gold a more reliable long-term value anchor.