Bitcoin Surpasses $71,000 Amid Geopolitical Turmoil and Dollar Weakness

On March 10th, the price of Bitcoin broke through $71,000. This latest surge wasn't triggered by technical signals, but rather by a chain reaction stemming from geopolitical shifts. Former US President Donald Trump, at a Republican policy conference in Florida, referred to the US military action against Iran as a 'little excursion' and predicted the situation would 'end soon.' This statement sparked widespread speculation about the duration of the conflict, influencing crude oil and dollar movements, and indirectly boosting crypto assets.

Market analysis indicates that the real driver of Bitcoin's rise is not the conflict itself, but its transmission effect on commodities and the monetary system. Jake Ostrovskis, Head of OTC Trading at Wintermute exchange, stated: 'Lower oil prices have a bigger impact on the crypto market than geopolitics itself.' The logic chain is clear: escalating tensions in the Middle East → easing concerns about crude oil supply → falling oil prices → cooling inflation expectations → market bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts → weakening dollar → capital inflows into risk assets like Bitcoin.

Although Trump repeatedly emphasized that the conflict was 'about to end,' his remarks were contradictory. In different contexts, he stated that the operation was 'very thorough' but also that 'not enough victory has been achieved,' even claiming to have destroyed more than 50 Iranian ships, reducing their missile capabilities to below 10%. Simultaneously, he warned Iran via the Truth Social platform that blocking the Strait of Hormuz would face 'death, fire, and fury,' and confirmed that seven US military personnel had died in the operation. The Iranian side has clearly stated that there are no ceasefire negotiations currently underway. It is worth noting that market sentiment indicators show that the 'extreme fear' level is still as high as 13, indicating that investors generally do not believe that the war will end quickly. At the same time, the open interest in Bitcoin and Ethereum has increased by more than 5%, significantly higher than the increase in spot prices, reflecting the accumulation of leveraged positions, and the market is preparing for potential volatility. From a technical perspective, if Bitcoin wants to completely reverse the 'lower highs, lower lows' downtrend formed since October 2025, it needs to effectively break through the key resistance level of $98,000. The current rise is more akin to a short-term sentiment-driven rebound rather than a trend reversal, and subsequent movements are still highly dependent on the evolution of the geopolitical situation and macroeconomic policy trends.