Bitfinex Analysis: Bitcoin Turns Macro-Driven, Three Key Levels Determine Next Direction

Recently, Bitcoin (BTC) has continued to fluctuate amid the shadow of US-Iran geopolitical tensions, with price volatility narrowing and market sentiment becoming cautious. Despite a brief rebound recently, Bitfinex analysts point out that Bitcoin's short-term movements are no longer dominated by internal cryptocurrency factors, but are increasingly influenced by macroeconomic variables.

In the latest weekly report, analysts emphasized that Bitcoin's movements are increasingly linked to crude oil prices, US Treasury yields, and the direction of the Federal Reserve's policies. This shift reflects a deep change in the market structure: a significant decrease in leverage in the derivatives market indicates that the speculative market driven by high leverage has come to an end, and current prices are more driven by macro liquidity and capital flows.

Currently, Bitcoin has entered a typical consolidation phase, with prices hovering within a range for a long time. Even the recent slight rebound has failed to break this pattern. Analysts point out that Bitcoin is gradually exhibiting trading characteristics similar to tech stocks - highly sensitive to macro liquidity, rather than being dominated by on-chain activity or community sentiment. Among the key influencing factors, the inflow and outflow of funds from Bitcoin spot ETFs have become a core observation indicator. Unless there is a clear breakthrough in ETF fund flows, Bitcoin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly between $63,000 and $72,000 in the short term. This range not only represents the equilibrium point of market bulls and bears, but also reflects investors' cautious attitude towards macroeconomic uncertainties. In the coming weeks, market participants should focus on US inflation data, Federal Reserve interest rate signals, and liquidity operations by major central banks around the world, as these factors may determine whether Bitcoin can break through the current consolidation pattern and start a new round of trends.