The core design of Bitcoin lies in its fixed total supply of 21 million coins. Through a halving mechanism that occurs every four years, the rate of new coin production continues to slow down, ultimately approaching zero. When approximately 95% of Bitcoin is mined, the circulating supply will be close to 20 million coins, with only about 1 million coins gradually released over the coming decades.
At this stage, the incremental supply of new coins has a negligible impact on the market. In the past, each halving significantly drove price cycles, as the new supply constituted an important proportion of market liquidity. However, now, the daily new Bitcoin represents only a tiny fraction of the total circulating supply, fundamentally changing the market pricing logic: prices are no longer dominated by miners selling new coins, but rather determined by the buying and selling intentions of existing holders.
Institutional investors, ETF funds, corporate treasuries, and large over-the-counter traders are becoming the core forces influencing market supply and demand. When demand rises, buyers can only compete within a limited stock, significantly amplifying this scarcity and driving prices upward rapidly. Conversely, in a tightening macro environment, shrinking liquidity, or increasing regulatory pressure, if a large number of long-term holders decide to sell off their holdings while buyer interest is insufficient, prices may also experience severe corrections.
Meanwhile, the role of miners is also quietly changing. As block rewards approach zero, their income will rely almost entirely on transaction fees. This will lead to network security becoming more dependent on transaction activity and market depth rather than new coin incentives. The economic model of Bitcoin is shifting from an “inflation-driven” to a “deflationary game,” with its price fluctuations increasingly tied to traditional financial cycles, global liquidity conditions, and investor sentiment, rather than merely crypto narratives.
This means that the future trajectory of Bitcoin will increasingly resemble that of a digital gold asset, with its value shaped by global capital allocation decisions and scarcity consensus, rather than short-term mining incentives. In this phase, the true market forces will no longer be the miners, but the holders and long-term investors.