Geopolitical Risks Drive Up Energy Costs: Can Bitcoin Withstand the Impact of the AI Power Crisis?

As tensions escalate in Iran, the global oil market faces potential supply disruption risks, and energy price fluctuations are being transmitted to the electricity market, posing new pressures on data centers and artificial intelligence infrastructure. With the continued surge in AI training and inference demands, rising electricity costs are becoming a key bottleneck restricting technological expansion.

Analysts point out that soaring energy prices not only push up inflation expectations but may also affect the pace of central bank interest rate cuts. Although core inflation is still trending downward, the rapid transmission of energy-related costs is exposing the technology industry to unprecedented cost volatility. Macquarie Group interest rate strategist Thierry Wizman warned that if the energy inflation wave of 2022-2023 recurs, global economic growth may be hindered, and industries highly dependent on cheap electricity, such as AI, will bear the brunt.

Middle Eastern countries plan to invest over $300 billion in building data centers and chip facilities, but geopolitical risks and rising energy costs have forced the delay of some projects. European policymakers have also warned that if electricity supply cannot keep up with the pace of AI development, it may create an "AI divide" within the region—resource-rich areas will accelerate ahead, while energy-stressed areas will be left behind. Swedish Energy Minister Ebba Busch stated bluntly: "If we cannot handle this properly, the future of AI will belong to a few countries with abundant electricity." As a crucial chokepoint for approximately 20% of global oil transportation, any local disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a surge in oil prices and indirectly increase data center operating expenses through shipping insurance, logistics delays, and rising electricity procurement costs. The duration of market volatility will determine whether its impact is a short-term disturbance or a long-term structural pressure. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin, as a digital asset that does not rely on traditional energy networks, is being re-examined by the market for its stability and may become an alternative value storage option in energy turmoil.