Bitcoin Order Book Imbalance: Can $70K Hold as Key Support?

According to trader Ardi's order book analysis, the total sell orders within a 5% range above and below the current Bitcoin spot price are approximately 40% higher than buy orders, forming a clear supply pressure. In contrast, the buy-side support below appears weak, placing the market in a typical state of supply-demand imbalance.

This structure is highly similar to the market pattern observed in January of this year when Bitcoin briefly broke through $98,000 before falling back. At that time, a similar concentration of selling pressure appeared before the price returned to the middle of the range. The current market performance also suggests that some traders may be taking advantage of price rebounds to lock in profits, leading to an accumulation of liquidity above.

From the perspective of short-term holder cost structure, the average entry price for Bitcoin users holding for less than six months is approximately $88,900. This figure is significantly higher than the current market price, meaning that a large number of holders are still in a state of unrealized loss. Although a weekly book loss of approximately $2 billion occurred when the price fell below $60,000 in February, the current gap between the price and the cost center is even larger, limiting the pressure of "break-even selling" that can be triggered in the short term.

Compared to the rebound in January, the current price is further away from the short-term holder cost area, which reduces the psychological motivation for investors to rush to sell during small rebounds. Many holders are more inclined to wait for the price to return to the $86,000 to $89,000 range—the key area for most people to break even—rather than cutting losses at the current low levels. Therefore, while a return to $70,000 to $72,000 can alleviate some short-term pressure, the real turning point to reverse market sentiment and stimulate large-scale buying may require Bitcoin to regain its footing above $86,000, breaking through the dense short-term cost area.