Bitcoin Surges to $71,255 Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Shifting Fed Expectations

On March 10th, Bitcoin's price climbed 3.5%, surpassing $71,255, as market sentiment oscillated between geopolitical volatility and evolving monetary policy expectations. U.S. President Trump's conflicting statements regarding the Iranian situation – claiming the conflict was "largely over" while warning of "doubled retaliation" if Iran blocked oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz – injected high-risk signals into global energy markets. Brent crude oil prices retreated from a high of $120, creating room for a rebound in risk assets.

Concurrently, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut on March 18th have sharply diminished, with the probability falling below 1%. Analysts suggest that if Brent crude oil consistently remains above $80, it could reignite inflation concerns, effectively ruling out any near-term rate cuts.

Despite the rise in Bitcoin's price, market sentiment remains in the "extreme fear" zone. Derivatives data indicates that open interest in Bitcoin and Ethereum has increased by over 5%, exceeding the spot price gains, suggesting active leveraged trading. The Bitunix research team points out that the $70,000 to $74,000 range is a dense liquidation zone for shorts, while $65,000 to $66,000 represents a critical defense line for longs. Any breach could trigger significant price volatility. Industry analysts are divided on the future outlook. David Brickell and Chris Mills of the London Crypto Club propose a dual-path model: if regional conflicts persist, investors may turn to Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset; if the situation quickly eases, a resurgence in risk appetite could ignite a new round of Bitcoin buying. Conversely, Pratik Kala, Head of Research at Apollo Crypto, warns that the current $65,000 to $70,000 range has become a breeding ground for profit-taking, and a breach of support could trigger a chain reaction of liquidations. To truly reverse the "lower high" trend since last October, Bitcoin needs to decisively break through $98,000 and establish a firm foothold at that level.