After months of continuous sell-offs, the crypto market is showing initial signs of stabilization, but uncertainty remains regarding its outlook. Investor sentiment continues to be low, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remaining in the extreme fear zone (14-19) at the beginning of March. Such levels typically indicate market pressure but may also signal a potential sharp reversal.
Recently, Bitcoin's price has risen above $71,000, leading to a mild rebound in the overall market, with some altcoins performing notably well, such as Flow, which surged over 36%. However, Bitcoin is still down about 42% from its historical peak, and the market as a whole has not yet escaped the adjustment pattern.
In terms of capital flow, the market recorded a weekly loss of $264 million recently. Although this remains a net loss, it has significantly narrowed compared to the nearly $2 billion weekly loss on February 7. This indicates that the momentum for large-scale sell-offs is weakening, and the market is entering a digestion phase.
It is noteworthy that the proportion of short-term holders has risen to 22% of Bitcoin's total supply, up from 12% at the beginning of 2023, indicating that new capital is still flowing in despite the market's volatility. At the same time, trading behavior is converging, with some investors beginning to rebuild their positions.
Data from Binance's futures market shows that Bitcoin trading volume has surpassed that of altcoins. This structural change has occurred multiple times in historical bottom regions and may indicate that market sentiment is shifting from panic to a wait-and-see approach.
On a macro level, tightening global liquidity, a strengthening dollar, and rising U.S. Treasury yields continue to exert pressure on risk assets. In the short term, Bitcoin may continue to oscillate between $60,000 and $70,000. Although short-term technical indicators have shown some recovery, the risk of profit-taking remains.
Some institutions remain cautiously optimistic. Dan Morehead of Pantera Capital noted that current crypto asset prices are significantly below long-term trend lines, presenting long-term allocation value. Coinbase Institutional emphasized that improvements in the regulatory environment and integration with the financial system are providing structural support for the market; Bybit analysts pointed out that the options market still implies about a 5% probability that Bitcoin could reach $150,000 this year.
In summary, the market is gradually moving away from the most intense sell-off phase, but whether it can initiate a sustained rebound still depends on Bitcoin's ability to solidify its rebound momentum and break through key resistance levels in the coming weeks.