In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin's institutional dominance has reached a macro warning level. On-chain analyst GugaOnChain reports that over-the-counter (OTC) trading accounted for 82.26% of total BTC settlement volume.
Coinbase holds a 58.21% share of the centralized exchange traffic, becoming the primary trading platform. The current Bitcoin price is $73,337, having risen 9.02% over the past week, with a settlement volume of 706,000 BTC, equivalent to $5.15 billion. These figures indicate that institutions are engaging in large-scale coordinated accumulation.
OTC Market Shows Signs of Structural Accumulation
The share of Bitcoin OTC trading has crossed 80%, entering what analysts refer to as the institutional warning zone. This range, between 80% and 90%, marks a period of sharp contraction in public liquidity.
As a result, only 17.14% of settlement activity has flowed into centralized exchanges during this period, leading to a very limited sell-side depth in the public order books.
When OTC activity reaches this level, smart money tends to transfer large amounts of Bitcoin from exchanges. GugaOnChain notes that this pattern has become increasingly evident in recent weeks.
Institutional buyers consistently prefer private transactions over exchange-based order flow. This behavior has gradually reduced the supply available in retail trading venues.
GugaOnChain issued a direct warning to futures traders on social media. He stated that the 82% offline settlement leaves the spot market's sellers nearly empty.
Any surge in demand, the article notes, will trigger a supply shock. Analysts warn that a subsequent sharp rise in Bitcoin prices is likely to follow.
For active traders, the main lesson is to manage directional risk. GugaOnChain explicitly warns against holding short positions in the current market environment.
With very little sell-side liquidity in the public market, any surge in demand faces a situation with no resistance. This structural setup makes short positions particularly vulnerable to sudden sharp reversals.
Coinbase Dominates CEX Traffic, While Long-Term Holders Remain Inactive
Among the 17.14% of trades flowing into centralized exchanges, capital concentration is quite evident. Coinbase dominates with a 58.21% share, reflecting its role as the custodian for 11 U.S. Bitcoin ETFs.
Binance follows closely with a 22.13% share, primarily serving as a retail entry point rather than an institutional hub. Kraken holds a 6.44% share, attracting compliance-focused institutional capital.
To confirm the accumulation hypothesis, GugaOnChain cross-verified OTC data with exchange inflow metrics. The analyst used the “Bitcoin: Exchange Inflow - Spent Output Age Range” metric, covering all major exchanges.
In the past 24 hours, only 94.68 BTC of coins older than six months were deposited into exchanges. Compared to the 706,000 BTC transferred on-chain that day, this confirms that long-term holders are nearly completely inactive.
These data indicate that seasoned holders have not distributed during the current price rise. Old coins remain locked, while new institutional accumulation continues in the OTC market.
The combination of low selling from long-term holders and high OTC absorption further tightens the available supply structure.