Recent market data indicates that Bitcoin's net loss over the past seven days has narrowed to $611 million, while realized gains reached $346 million. Although still in a net loss position overall, market sentiment has significantly eased compared to the sharp sell-off earlier this year when Bitcoin fell below $60,000. The scale of realized losses has decreased dramatically by 87% in the past five weeks, reflecting a continuous reduction in market selling pressure.
Notably, the proportion of short-term holders (holding coins for less than 155 days) has risen to 22%, a significant increase from the low of 12% in 2023. Traditionally, these investors tend to exit quickly during price declines, but current data shows that more people are choosing to hold rather than sell, indicating that market sentiment is shifting from panic to observation and consolidation. CryptoQuant analysis points out that this change in behavior is one of the core drivers of the recent narrowing of losses.
From the perspective of the net realized profit/loss indicator, Bitcoin has been negative for the past four months, reflecting a process of continuous selling by "weak hands" and redistribution of chips. When this indicator returns to zero, it means that buying and selling forces are tending towards equilibrium, which does not necessarily trigger a bull market, but it marks that the most severe decline phase may have passed. Currently, the indicator is at -$264 million. If the Bitcoin price can rebound to the $70,000 to $72,000 range in the short term, it is expected to usher in the first weekly positive profit and loss inflection point.
However, whether the market can form sustained upward momentum remains uncertain. Although data confirms that selling pressure has significantly eased, future trends are still affected by multiple factors such as the macro environment, liquidity, and market sentiment. A short-term rebound does not equal a trend reversal. Investors still need to remain rational and pay attention to further changes in key price levels and holding structures.