BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, one of the most steadfast Bitcoin bulls in the cryptocurrency space, recently stated publicly that he would not invest a single dollar in Bitcoin at the current price level. The core of his decision lies in waiting for the Federal Reserve to restart quantitative easing, i.e., the central bank to restart monetary expansion, before considering entering the market.
Hayes explicitly pointed out that he would only buy Bitcoin when the Federal Reserve is forced to cut interest rates and inject liquidity due to economic pressure. He compared the current market situation to historical events—during the Gulf War in 1990, the Federal Reserve considered policy adjustments due to the turbulent situation in the Middle East; after the “9/11” attacks in 2001, the Federal Reserve, under the leadership of Greenspan, urgently cut interest rates by 50 basis points to stabilize the market. He believes that if the current geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran continues to escalate, it will force the US government to significantly increase its fiscal deficit, ultimately forcing the Federal Reserve to take easing measures.
At the same time, the price of Bitcoin is currently still down about 45% from its historical high, and market sentiment is in a state of extreme fear. Despite this, Hayes has not changed his long-term bullish stance. He predicted in December 2025 that Bitcoin would reach $200,000 before March 2026, but as of March 2026, the BTC price has not broken $70,000, and the prediction has clearly failed. This contradiction between short-term wait-and-see and long-term belief precisely reflects the essence of his investment logic: he is not bearish on Bitcoin, but waiting for a “catalyst” to appear—namely, systemic liquidity injection.
In addition to fiscal expansion driven by geopolitics, Hayes also proposed that artificial intelligence will constitute another driving force. He believes that the large-scale replacement of white-collar jobs by AI technology may trigger turmoil in the credit market, forcing the central bank to intervene urgently, and the Federal Reserve is not yet prepared for this new type of economic shock.
The next key node for the market is the February CPI data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on March 12. If the inflation data is higher than expected, it will delay the Federal Reserve's pace of interest rate cuts, further corroborating Hayes' waiting strategy; conversely, if the data is weak, it may accelerate easing expectations and become a potential trigger for a Bitcoin rebound.