Trump's Iran Remarks Roil Markets, Bitcoin Swings Over $13,000 in a Day

Recent fluctuating statements by U.S. President Trump regarding military actions in Iran have triggered internal rifts within the political arena and intensified volatility in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin's price surged from $66,000 to $71,000 in just a few hours before retracing, exhibiting a daily swing of over $13,000, reflecting investors' heightened sensitivity to geopolitical risks and cascading economic effects.

Trump initially stated in a CBS interview that the war was "pretty much over," but hours later at a Republican rally in Miami, he claimed, "We've achieved some victories, but it's far from enough." This contradictory stance not only undermines policy coherence but also leads to division among his core supporters. Prominent commentator Tucker Carlson bluntly called the attack "despicable" on his podcast, labeling it "Israel's war," signaling a weakening consensus within the MAGA camp regarding military intervention.

Concurrently, the energy market experienced a significant shock. Brent crude oil prices briefly approached $120 per barrel, with market concerns that gasoline prices across the U.S. would surpass $4 per gallon, exacerbating inflationary pressures. Economic advisor Stephen Moore pointed out to The Wall Street Journal that rising energy costs would comprehensively drag down household consumption and business operating costs. Despite White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt's insistence that the advisory team is united and focused on the success of "Operation Epic Storm," the market is more concerned with actual economic data than political statements. SignalPlus partner Augustine Fan noted that crypto assets lack an independent narrative in the short term and continue to closely follow the trends of crude oil and traditional risk assets. Bitrue's Head of Research, Andri Fasan, believes that if Trump's statement that the "war is nearing its end" is true, the market may see a strong rebound. However, Iran's silence and the risk of a potentially prolonged conflict still make the recovery outlook uncertain. On-chain data analysis firm Santiment has monitored extreme short positions on major exchanges. Historical data shows that such situations often indicate that a price breakthrough above resistance levels may trigger a massive short squeeze, forming a sharp short-term rebound. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on March 18 and the CPI data released on March 12 will be key indicators. Currently, market expectations for a March rate cut have fallen below 1%, and inflation concerns are further suppressing expectations for easing policies, adding more variables to the cryptocurrency market.