As the situation in Iran escalates, causing global economic tremors, the crypto market is undergoing a profound restructuring. Crude oil prices surged by 25%, and the outlook for transportation through the Strait of Hormuz is concerning. These factors have collectively driven market sentiment into a state of extreme fear, while Bitcoin remains firmly around $70,000, prompting investors to reassess its 'digital gold' attributes.
The key contradiction lies in the central bank's response strategy. Jake Ostrovski, head of over-the-counter trading at Wintermute, pointed out that oil price trends are more decisive for the crypto market than the geopolitical conflict itself. If Brent crude remains above $80, inflation expectations will be reinforced, and the market's anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts will fade, putting continuous pressure on risk assets—including Bitcoin.
After news of personnel changes in Iran's high-level leadership, Bitcoin briefly rebounded above $68,200 and broke through $70,000 within days. Ethereum rose by 4.8%, while Solana surged by 10.8%, indicating a short-term preference for highly volatile assets in the market.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, offered another perspective: he believes that the massive fiscal deficits resulting from war will ultimately force the Federal Reserve to restart quantitative easing. This viewpoint is based on a pattern observed since 1985—whenever the U.S. undertakes significant military actions in the Middle East, it is often followed by interest rate cuts or liquidity injections to offset war expenditures.
Meanwhile, the traditional financial system is also responding to this trend. The parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, ICE, is developing a blockchain-based tokenized stock trading platform, expected to launch in the second quarter of 2026; Nasdaq has also submitted a proposal to extend trading hours to 23 hours a day. The Iranian events highlight that 24/7 trading is no longer an exclusive advantage of the crypto market but an inevitable direction for future financial infrastructure.
Additionally, Iran's local crypto economy, estimated at around $7.8 billion, has also come into the public eye. Although its specific composition and uses remain controversial, this figure reveals the actual penetration of crypto assets in sanctioned economies. Future market trends may no longer be dominated by ideology but will be driven more by the dual forces of oil prices and monetary policy.