Arthur Hayes: Bullish on Bitcoin's Long-Term Prospects, But Doesn't Recommend Buying Now

Despite being bullish on Bitcoin's long-term prospects, Arthur Hayes says that if he had a dollar in his hand right now, he wouldn't buy Bitcoin immediately. "I would choose to wait." His position stems from a deep observation of changes in macro liquidity, rather than a judgment on short-term price fluctuations. Hayes believes that geopolitical conflicts themselves will not directly drive Bitcoin's price up. The real key is how governments finance wars. Bitcoin tends to benefit when central banks expand the money supply to support fiscal spending. He pointed out that as conflicts continue, the Federal Reserve may be forced to support US military spending by printing money, and this expansion of liquidity is the core driver of Bitcoin's many significant historical rallies.

However, he also reminded investors that short-term geopolitical tensions may trigger risk-off sentiment in global markets, causing widespread pressure on risk assets. Before liquidity is released, Bitcoin still faces downside risks. The market has mixed opinions on this. Some analysts believe that current macro indicators are gradually shifting to support digital assets, especially against the backdrop of intertwined inflationary pressures and monetary easing expectations, Bitcoin may usher in a turning point. This divergence reflects the polarization of the investor community: one side pays more attention to central bank policies and monetary cycles, while the other relies more on market sentiment and technical signals.

Unlike earlier Bitcoin cycles, which were mainly driven by internal factors such as exchange listings and blockchain project breakthroughs, today's market is deeply integrated into the global financial system. For macro-oriented investors, the Fed's policy moves are even more forward-looking than on-chain data. Despite his short-term wait-and-see attitude, Hayes emphasized that his structural bullishness on Bitcoin has never changed. In his view, Bitcoin's scarcity, decentralized nature, and global adoption trend will eventually outweigh short-term macro disturbances and become the preferred asset for long-term value storage.