Despite the ongoing escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the widespread pressure on global financial markets, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is widely expected to end its negative interest rate policy and begin a rate hike cycle in June 2025. According to a Reuters survey of 45 major financial institutions' economists conducted from April 10 to 15, 2025, a significant 85% of respondents predict that the central bank will raise the short-term policy interest rate by 10 to 25 basis points, indicating a high degree of consensus on the policy path.
This expectation marks a significant turning point in Japan's monetary policy. For the past decade, Japan has maintained an ultra-loose policy to combat deflationary pressures. Now, as the linkage between domestic wages and prices gradually forms, the driving force of inflation has shifted from external input to endogenous growth, and the conditions for the central bank to exit the negative interest rate environment are becoming increasingly mature.
It is worth noting that even against the backdrop of frequent fluctuations in global energy prices and rising risk aversion, Japan's monetary policy still demonstrates strong independence. On the one hand, since the global energy crisis in 2022, Japan has significantly optimized its energy import structure, reducing its dependence on Middle Eastern crude oil. On the other hand, the yen, as a traditional safe-haven currency, usually strengthens when geopolitical risks rise, automatically buffering imported inflationary pressures and reducing the need for emergency intervention by the central bank.
Institutional analysis points out that the current inflation trend is mainly driven by domestic wage growth. Morgan Stanley analysts said: "The Japanese Wage-Price Spiral has formed enough momentum to support policy normalization, and there is no need to be shaken by short-term commodity fluctuations." Nomura Securities also emphasized: "The Bank of Japan's core goal is to achieve a sustainable 2% inflation rate, and current data clearly points to the achievability of this goal."
The market generally regards the policy meeting in June 2025 as a key node. At that time, the central bank will comprehensively assess the results of the Shunto wage negotiations, consumer resilience, and labor market performance, and finally confirm the pace of interest rate hikes. This decision not only concerns Japan's economic transformation but will also have a profound impact on global capital allocation and the Asian monetary system.