According to CryptoQuant data, the Ethereum scarcity index on the Binance platform has risen to 0.67, entering positive territory. This metric reflects that the rate of ETH net outflow from the exchange is exceeding new deposits, while the current ETH price is stable around $2,050, without a significant rebound.
The index, designed by analyst ArabxChain, measures the deviation of Ethereum's tradable supply on Binance from its historical average. A positive value indicates that the ETH supply on the platform is contracting, usually due to large holders withdrawing assets to cold wallets or their own on-chain addresses; a negative value represents supply accumulation, often seen during market panic selling. The zero line is the long-term average, and although the current 0.67 has not reached historical peaks, it is significantly higher than neutral levels.
Reviewing the historical trend from September 2024 to March 2026, it can be seen that the lowest point of the index often coincides with price lows, while significant positive jumps often precede price stabilization or reversal. It is worth noting that this round of positive signals appears in a low price range below the 50-day moving average ($2,278) and the 200-day moving average ($3,038), which is different from the previous high-level distribution pattern, and is more likely to reflect long-term holders strategically accumulating during the pullback.
As ETH continues to leave centralized exchanges, the market liquidity pool shrinks, and order book depth decreases. This means that the same size buy order will more easily push the price up—not that the index itself pushes up the price, but that it reduces the buffer space for the market to absorb selling pressure, increasing the price's sensitivity to buy orders.
This trend echoes recent other on-chain data. Glassnode data shows a large amount of Bitcoin trading below $70,000; whale wallets continue to increase their holdings during price corrections. The strengthening of the Ethereum scarcity index further corroborates that mainstream holders are strengthening their positions through decentralization, rather than preparing to sell.
It needs to be clarified that the index only describes the changing trend of the current supply structure and does not have a direct price prediction function. Historically, ETH has also consolidated in the positive range for several months. Therefore, it is more suitable as an auxiliary observation tool for market sentiment and capital flow, rather than the sole basis for trading decisions.
