Bitcoin's Monthly Chart Structure Remains Intact, Target Still Points to $167,000

Since 2014, Bitcoin's monthly price has consistently traded within a well-defined ascending channel. Through four complete cycles, it has never broken the upper or lower boundaries of this channel. Each market low has bounced near the lower edge, and each high has retreated after approaching the upper edge, forming a highly consistent technical pattern. Currently, Bitcoin's price is at $70,433, located in the upper-middle region of the channel, which is more indicative of a mid-term correction than a long-term top signal.

Historical data shows that in the previous three cycles, there were mid-term corrections of 15%, 36%, and 36%, respectively, all occurring during bull markets. Although market sentiment was pessimistic at the time, these corrections ultimately proved to be temporary consolidations during the uptrend. The current decline from $108,000 to $60,000 is approximately 44%, slightly deeper than the historical average, but still within an acceptable correction range on a logarithmic scale, and has not disrupted the original trend structure. From a Fibonacci extension perspective, the current market has not yet completed its key targets. The 1.272 extension level is at $100,000, which Bitcoin has briefly touched; the 1.414 extension level is around $123,000, close to the previous all-time high; and the 1.618 extension level points to $167,000, which remains an unrealized and clear target. In technical analysis, 1.618 is often regarded as the natural endpoint of a complete main trend. Currently, Bitcoin has only completed the first two phases, and the structure is not yet closed. Overall, analysts believe there is a 60%-70% probability of continuing the original trend: if the price can firmly break through the key resistance of $74,000, it is expected to gradually attack $100,000, $123,000, and ultimately challenge $167,000. The current price is about 5% away from this resistance point, and a breakout will be an important signal confirming the end of the correction. The remaining 30%-40% probability points to a deeper correction, but this requires breaking below the lower edge of the channel to be validated. Currently, the trend-dominant forces still hold the advantage.