After a sustained four-month decline in open interest and deleveraging, the 30-day change rate of Bitcoin futures open interest is gradually returning to near zero. Historically, this turning point has often been seen as a precursor to a key price movement, and the current persistently negative funding rates further reveal potential structural risks in the market.
From August 2025 to March 2026, the Bitcoin futures market experienced a clear deleveraging process. From August to early September, open interest saw a moderate increase as the price fluctuated between $115,000 and $125,000. However, since November 2025, market sentiment reversed, and open interest entered a period of sustained contraction. Particularly in late November and early February 2026, the contract change rate once fell to -$400 million, when the Bitcoin price approached $65,000, and the market experienced large-scale forced liquidations.
Current data shows that the negative trend is clearly narrowing, and a weak positive signal has appeared on the right side of the chart, indicating that new funds are beginning to re-enter the futures market. This marks the end of the systemic deleveraging phase of the past few months.
It is worth noting that the current funding rate remains in negative territory. Under the perpetual contract mechanism, a negative rate means that short positions must pay fees to long positions to maintain their holdings. This indicates that the market as a whole is still dominated by net shorts, with a large number of traders choosing to short or hedge spot risks with short orders. However, when market sentiment turns and prices begin to rebound, this highly concentrated short structure is highly likely to trigger a chain reaction: shorts are forced to buy to cover their losses, and increased buying pushes prices higher, which in turn forces more shorts to add to their positions, forming a self-reinforcing "short squeeze" cycle. This process does not require fundamental benefits, only a price breakthrough of a key psychological level to start.
Technically, historical price structures point to the $80,000 to $90,000 range – an area that repeatedly acted as support and resistance between October 2025 and January 2026. The current Bitcoin price is about $69,000, and there is still 15% to 30% upside to this area, making it the most likely target area for a short squeeze.