BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes stated in the latest episode of the Coin Stories podcast that while he is bullish on Bitcoin reaching a price target of $250,000 in the long term, now is not the right time to buy. He emphasized that if he had funds available for investment, he would choose to wait rather than jump in immediately.
Hayes pointed out that Bitcoin's price fluctuations are more influenced by monetary policy than by geopolitical events themselves. He refuted the common notion that “war is good for Bitcoin,” arguing that the real driving force is the monetary easing environment created when central banks release liquidity. In his view, the market's reaction to geopolitical conflicts is essentially a correction of expectations regarding subsequent central bank policies.
The current price of Bitcoin is around $69,800, which still has about a 45% decline potential from the peak of $126,000 reached last October. Hayes warned that if tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalate further, it could trigger a chain sell-off of global assets, including stocks and the cryptocurrency market. If the price falls below $60,000, it could trigger a large number of leveraged positions to be liquidated, exacerbating market volatility.
Despite his short-term caution, Hayes remains steadfast in his long-term outlook. He reiterated his previous prediction that Bitcoin is expected to rise to $250,000 by the end of 2026. He believes that as global asset allocation needs change and Bitcoin adoption increases, the time Bitcoin spends below $100,000 will become increasingly shorter.
Notably, some market analysts, such as Michael van de Poppe, believe that the strong rebound of the Nasdaq index may indicate a warming of market risk appetite, potentially driving crypto assets to strengthen in tandem. However, for Hayes, the real turning point still hinges on whether the Federal Reserve initiates a new round of quantitative easing; only with the expansion of liquidity can the next bull market be ignited.