Why Arthur Hayes Isn't Buying Bitcoin Yet, Even if It Dips Below $60,000

Veteran crypto figure Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom, recently stated publicly that despite being bullish on Bitcoin in the long term, he does not plan to enter the market at present, even if the price falls below $60,000.

He stated bluntly, "If I had a dollar to invest right now, I would choose to wait." Behind this stance is his deep insight into macro liquidity. Hayes believes that Bitcoin's price movement is highly correlated with liquidity in the financial system and is often regarded as a "liquidity alarm"—when central banks expand the money supply, Bitcoin tends to experience a strong rally; conversely, when liquidity tightens and market risk appetite declines, even digital assets like Bitcoin can experience short-term declines as investors turn to cash or safe-haven assets such as government bonds.

He pointed out that the current global geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic pressures could lead to a synchronized correction in the stock and crypto markets, making it not impossible for Bitcoin to fall below $60,000 in the short term. In this environment, trying to precisely time the bottom could lead to unnecessary losses. Hayes emphasized that the market's purpose is not to make you money, but to take your money away. The real opportunity often arises when the Federal Reserve and other major central banks restart quantitative easing and release liquidity. He believes that in the coming years, if global liquidity resumes expansion, Bitcoin is expected to hit the $100,000 mark. For him, patiently observing macro signals is far better than blindly chasing rallies and selling dips. Now is not the time to enter the market, but a window to accumulate strength and wait for the turning point.