The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February rose 2.4% year-on-year, in line with market expectations; the month-on-month increase was 0.3%, unchanged from the previous value. The core CPI saw a slight decline to 0.2% month-on-month, while the annual rate remained at 2.5%, indicating overall inflation is stabilizing. However, the current data reflects the economic situation of February and does not account for the recent volatility in energy prices triggered by geopolitical turmoil.
International oil prices have surged to $108 per barrel, a significant increase from $55 at the beginning of the year. According to Federal Reserve research models, every $10 increase in oil prices could push inflation up by about 20 basis points. The rise from $55 to $108 implies that potential inflationary pressure has accumulated by approximately 114 basis points, which, if fully transmitted to the CPI, could push the overall inflation rate above 3%. The market generally expects that the inflation data for March and April will more accurately reflect this impact.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market has shown mixed performance against the backdrop of rising inflation expectations. Although Bitcoin remains the dominant asset in the market, some altcoins demonstrated stronger resilience and rebound momentum during the market correction in February, attracting gradual inflows of capital. Analysts point out that as macroeconomic uncertainty increases, investors may turn to more volatile digital assets in search of returns, providing potential momentum for further gains in altcoins.
Currently, U.S. stock futures are showing weakness, with investors cautiously awaiting clearer inflation signals and the direction of Federal Reserve policy. The sustained high levels of energy prices have become a key variable influencing future monetary policy.