The U.S. regulatory agency is investigating whether private information was used to profit from the Trump administration's military strategy in Iran, particularly concerning several large oil trades.
Investigators are focusing on two specific incidents where the trading volume of oil futures surged just minutes before significant White House announcements, leading to notable fluctuations in the energy and stock markets.
The regulatory committee has requested exchanges to provide "Tag 50" identity data to identify the individuals or entities behind these trades. This specific identification string allows auditors to accurately trace the executors of the trades, serving as a digital fingerprint for compliance.
The first surge in trading occurred on March 23, just 15 minutes before President Trump announced a delay in strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure, with billions of dollars in futures contracts changing hands.
A similar pattern emerged again on April 7, shortly before the president announced a two-week ceasefire. In both incidents, the preemptive trading aligned perfectly with the subsequent drop in oil prices.
Insider trading behavior in prediction markets has become a focal point, with Miller stating on March 31: "There is a widespread misconception in mainstream and social media that insider trading does not apply to prediction markets... This is clearly incorrect."
Related legislation aims to address a perceived loophole, where those who have advance knowledge of military actions or policy changes could profit from "event contracts."
