Gold and Bitcoin Investment Sentiment Reverses: Analyzing Market Turning Signals

Recent divergence in investment sentiment between gold and Bitcoin has sparked widespread market attention. Renowned economist Lyn Alden points out that this difference does not negate Bitcoin's value; instead, it may foreshadow the start of a new growth cycle. She emphasizes that historically, the two have often exhibited cyclical rotation. Although Bitcoin is currently suppressed by negative sentiment, it is accumulating rebound momentum, while gold's strong performance may be a transitional phenomenon. Fidelity Digital Assets' Chris Kuiper holds a similar view in his 2026 outlook, believing that gold's recent surge is unusual and may indicate that funds are about to shift to Bitcoin. Both are gradually breaking away from the framework of traditional financial assets and are increasingly being seen by investors as digital and physical stores of value against systemic risk.

The flow of funds in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) further confirms this trend. GLD, the largest gold ETF in the United States, recorded a net outflow of as much as $3 billion in a single day, the first time in two years. In stark contrast, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $273 million on March 6, with holdings increasing by 4,021 Bitcoins in a single week, while gold ETF reserves continued to shrink. Market analysis indicates that as the U.S. economic momentum recovers and investors' risk appetite increases, Bitcoin's return over the past month has approached that of gold and is expected to outperform it. This may signal that the market is gradually shifting from a safe-haven logic to risk asset allocation.

However, some cautious views believe that this shift has not yet been fully established. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes maintains his prediction that Bitcoin will hit $250,000 within a year, but he emphasizes that the real buy signal should come from central banks restarting monetary expansion. He stated, "I'm not putting money into Bitcoin right now, I'm waiting for central banks to start 'printing money'." It is worth noting that the U.S. federal debt has exceeded $38 trillion, and the continuously expanding fiscal deficit and potential monetary easing policies may become key catalysts for driving up the price of Bitcoin. Historical data shows that Bitcoin's long-term performance is highly correlated with global liquidity and tends to perform well during monetary easing cycles. In contrast, gold's recent rise has mainly benefited from large-scale reserve increases by global central banks, while Bitcoin's next wave of gains may depend on a broader shift in monetary policy. Although both are stores of value, the driving logic has quietly diverged: gold relies on physical demand, while Bitcoin relies on the financial environment.