This week, positive news regarding a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has dominated headlines, with Tehran not denying the reports. A second round of negotiations is expected to take place again in Pakistan. Crucially, by next Tuesday, the ceasefire agreement must either be extended or negotiations must reach a lasting solution. Therefore, updates over the weekend will be significant for the market.
The short-term exemptions granted by the U.S. for Iranian and Russian oil exports are set to expire on April 19. This impending deadline has heightened expectations for a ceasefire or long-term agreement. The market has already priced in these prospects, so any reversal, such as a failure in negotiations, could lead to a sharp decline in risk assets and a spike in oil prices, prompting the U.S. to seek alternative solutions, including reissuing exemptions.
On Friday, oil prices traded at $96 per barrel, up 1.35% on the day. While the drop below $97 provided some relief, the $93 level remains a critical support area, and a breach could signal further downside. According to the Fed's Musalem, U.S. annual inflation could stabilize around 3% if oil prices hover near $95.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index has historically broken through 7,000 points for the first time, and the Nasdaq has also surpassed 24,000 points, both reaching all-time highs.
In terms of Bitcoin and other altcoins, Bitcoin ETF inflows have turned positive again over the past two days. During this period, over $590 million flowed in, reflecting a resurgence in institutional investor demand. Ethereum ETF inflows have also shown positive growth. The weekly ETF report expected on Monday is anticipated to reveal one of the strongest inflow patterns in recent history.
Bitcoin has now maintained a tight trading range for over 70 days, marking the first time it has held such strength near its resistance zone. This sustained state has sparked hopes for a breakout above $76,000, and without new negative news, it may pave the way for a new record above $80,000.
Meanwhile, whales have increased their accumulation efforts. In the past 30 days, the largest buying spree since 2013 has been recorded, with total purchases exceeding 270,000 BTC. Exchange reserves have dropped to their lowest levels since December 2017, indicating that most buyers are transferring their coins to cold wallets.
Among the top 100 cryptocurrencies, only EDGE has seen gains exceeding 20%. Meanwhile, altcoins like CHZ and FIL are also enjoying double-digit growth today.
With no escalation in geopolitical tensions, there is a general sense of relief in the crypto market, and strong ETF inflows have once again become a key driver—industry experts point out that this resurgence in institutional demand signals further upside potential.