Core Points
Sharp Decline Followed by Silence
After reaching a high of around $250 at the end of September 2024, Solana experienced one of the most intense downtrends of this cycle. By December, the 50-day moving average had nearly simultaneously crossed below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, forming a classic death cross that officially confirmed the downtrend and indicated that sellers had complete control of the market. From peak to trough, Solana lost about 70% of its value, dropping to a low of $77 in February.
However, the situation has changed since then. Prices are no longer making new lows but have been consolidating in a narrow range for over two months, a silence that deserves attention.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has just crossed above the midpoint of 50 and is currently at 51. This is the weakest momentum recovery among the major cryptocurrencies analyzed this week, but it is not necessarily bearish. It merely indicates that this wave of volatility has not fully begun. With an RSI of 51, accompanied by six weeks of institutional inflows and the formation of a golden cross, it resembles a spring ready to launch rather than one that has broken.
Accumulation Situation
As shown in the chart, after the price dropped to $77, buyers actively stepped in, pushing the price back to the $88 range and forming a textbook accumulation rectangle from mid-February to the last weeks of March. The bottom of this rectangle is clearly set at $77, while the top is at $92.8, a level that has been tested five times since February but has not achieved a breakout.
The accumulation rectangle is a classic technical analysis pattern that indicates that during this period, major participants and institutions are quietly accumulating assets, waiting for prices to begin a new uptrend. Supply is absorbed near the support level, with buy stop losses near the resistance level, until sellers are exhausted. This chart illustrates this behavior, and ETF data confirms it.
This is not passive investing but rather confidence buying at lower levels. Buying continued in March, with inflows of $24.05 million during the week of March 6, $10.7 million during the week of March 13, and $21.1 million during the week of March 20. With no price movement, the continuous six-week inflow of institutional funds is a real-time demonstration of the accumulation rectangle, confirmed by real capital.
New Developments
Since early April, a more direct pattern has emerged. Solana has formed a short-term ascending channel, with prices consistently making higher lows and attempting to break through the resistance level of $92.88, which is the top of the larger accumulation rectangle. This resistance level has been tested five times since February without confirming a breakout. Each failed attempt has increased the pressure at this level, but it has also created greater tension; the more times resistance is tested, the more significant the eventual breakout will be.
If the price can close cleanly above $92.88 on the daily chart, the next resistance level will be the 100-day moving average at $97.34, just above it. Further up, $117 will become a key level of focus.