Bitcoin is currently trading at around $74,700, close to its highest level since the market downturn in February, with the rebound momentum from the past two weeks continuing to build.
This trend is encouraging, but BTC is now at a crucial technical juncture within the entire adjustment cycle, located at the intersection of the upper boundary of the descending channel and the 100-day moving average, both of which have defined a bearish structure for months.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Daily Chart
During this adjustment cycle, BTC is making its first real attempt to break out of the descending channel, with prices surpassing the upper boundary of $74,000 to $75,000 while approaching the downward 100-day moving average. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also climbed to a high of 60, marking the strongest daily momentum reading since the crash in February, enhancing the credibility of this breakout attempt without showing overbought signals.
Whether this breakout can be confirmed or fails again depends on the price performance at the close over the next few days. If the price can consistently close above the channel and within the resistance zone of $75,000 to $80,000, it would represent a significant structural change and pave the way for the next target of $88,000 to $90,000, where the 200-day moving average awaits. Conversely, if the breakout fails, the key support level that buyers must defend is between $60,000 and $62,000.
BTC/USDT Four-Hour Chart
On the four-hour chart, BTC continues to trade within a slight ascending channel formed since the February lows. The price has broken through the midline and is attempting to surpass the resistance area of $74,000 to $76,000. The four-hour RSI is also hovering around 60, leaving room for further upside without facing the RSI-driven pullback risks seen in previous attempts.
If the price can cleanly break above $76,000 while the RSI remains above 60, it would be a strong short-term bullish signal and could accelerate upward towards the $80,000 to $82,000 region. If the asset stalls and retraces here, the recent low around $71,000 is the first support level to watch, followed by the lower boundary of the channel at $67,000.
On-Chain Analysis
The exchange reserves of Bitcoin have dropped to about 2.68 million BTC, the lowest level since mid-2023, significantly down from the peak of 3.2 million BTC at the beginning of 2024. This downward trend is steep and persistent, accelerating into the second half of 2025, despite the price having significantly retraced from its peak of $125,000.
The importance of this data cannot be underestimated. The amount of Bitcoin available for sale on exchanges is scarcer than at any time in the past three years, including when BTC prices were far below current levels. If demand returns strongly, the insufficient supply on exchanges could significantly amplify the upward price potential.
This scenario is reminiscent of previously observed market conditions.
