Bitcoin Fails to Breach $75K Again: Why Are Whales and Institutions' Continued Buying Thwarted?

For the past 35 days, Bitcoin (BTC) has been oscillating below $75,000. Since falling below this key resistance level on February 4th, it briefly rebounded to $74,031 this month—driven by favorable regulatory expectations—before retreating to its current level of $70,525.

Despite a temporary recovery in market sentiment, the strong selling pressure around $75,000 remains unresolved. Notably, the buying intensity of large investors has not diminished. Data from blockchain analysis platform CryptoQuant shows a significant increase in whale transactions exceeding $1 million this month. The total amount of Bitcoin held by whale addresses has reached 3.204 million, a new high since 2024. Simultaneously, the proportion of whales on exchanges continues to decline, indicating that large holders are reducing selling and shifting towards long-term holding.

The external environment also provides support: recent oil prices have fluctuated downwards due to US-Iran tensions, with some funds shifting from the gold market to digital assets, bringing additional buying to Bitcoin. Furthermore, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to potentially cut interest rates in the second half of the year. If Bitcoin breaks through $72,000, it may trigger short covering and technical buying, pushing the price towards a higher range; conversely, if it falls below $65,000, it may further test the $60,000 level. Geopolitically, US President Trump stated that the US-Iran conflict may "end soon," but Iran explicitly refuted this claim, calling it "absurd." Currently, the US continues to combat the planting of mines in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran has listed US Silicon Valley technology companies as "legitimate military targets" due to their association with the US military. Although such uncertainties have not directly impacted the price of Bitcoin, they have exacerbated market sentiment volatility.