Binance Research shared historical data suggesting that the US midterm elections could be the next catalyst for a recovery in the cryptocurrency and stock markets.
The data shows that in the 12 months following the US midterm elections, the S&P 500 index has risen by an average of 19%, while Bitcoin has risen by an average of 54% in the three midterm election years on record.
Binance Research believes that the years following the midterm elections may be the "strongest window in the cycle," arguing that history shows that markets typically rise after election results remove a major source of political uncertainty.
Although Bitcoin recorded negative returns in previous midterm election years, including a 56% drop in 2014, a 73% drop in 2018, and a 64% drop in 2022, historical patterns show a rebound in subsequent years.
Binance stated that recent market trends are more likely to be affected by the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, and warned that further escalation of the conflict could push up oil prices and put pressure on risk assets.
Oil Price Spike Adds to Market Pressure
An Iranian military spokesman told news outlets that the world should prepare for oil prices of $200 per barrel due to instability caused by the United States.
Global Markets in a "Wait-and-See" Phase Amid Geopolitical Escalation
Analysts at cryptocurrency derivatives exchange Bitunix told Cointelegraph that ongoing developments in the Middle East remain a key driver of global risk sentiment, as uncertainty surrounding energy supplies and military escalations leaves markets in a "wait-and-see phase intertwined with policy and geopolitical risks.":
Analysts said that market structure suggests that Bitcoin will remain range-bound until "macro events provide a clearer directional signal."