Goldman Sachs Pushes Fed Rate Cut Prediction to September 2026: What's Next for Crypto?

Goldman Sachs has delayed its forecast for the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut to September 2026, which could put pressure on the crypto market. Goldman Sachs warns that the easing of monetary policy may be delayed due to rising inflation risks related to oil prices and geopolitical tensions. With ongoing conflict between the US and Iran, financial markets are uneasy about the economic impact, raising concerns about disruptions to the global oil market. Inflation Forecasts Rise The rise in energy prices is a major driver of this forecast adjustment. Goldman Sachs now expects Brent crude to average around $98/barrel in March and April, about $40 higher than the 2025 average. If supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz last for a month, oil prices could climb above $110/barrel.

At the same time, the company noted that the labor market is gradually showing signs of weakness. If employment conditions deteriorate faster than expected, analysts believe that an early rate cut is still possible. Currently, traders estimate the probability of a rate cut in September at approximately 41%. Impact of Delayed Rate Cuts on the Crypto Market The postponement of the rate cut cycle means that borrowing costs may remain high for a longer period. This environment typically puts pressure on risk-sensitive assets, including the crypto market. Stronger inflation expectations may also reduce investor interest in speculative investments. In previous cycles, digital assets have tended to react to macroeconomic news similarly to tech stocks.

Goldman Sachs also pointed to geopolitical risk as a growing macro factor. The bank said that oil supply shocks could drive inflation and make monetary policy tighter than markets previously expected. Macro Risks Remain a Concern If inflation data or energy prices continue to rise unexpectedly, short-term volatility may remain high. As oil prices rise, consumer prices will also rise, which could complicate the Fed's policy path. However, the long-term outlook is less certain. Goldman Sachs' base case still expects oil prices to fall back to around $71/barrel by the end of 2026, which could ease inflationary pressures and reopen the possibility of a faster monetary easing. In the coming months, key variables for the crypto market to watch may include inflation data, energy prices, and signals from the Fed regarding the timing of rate cuts.