TD Securities: Geopolitical Conflicts Fuel Crude Oil Market Volatility, Widening Price Forecast Range

According to TD Securities' latest technical analysis report, the global oil market is facing an unprecedented period of volatility, with geopolitical tensions redefining market risk. The report, released in March 2025, uses its proprietary charting model to illustrate how specific conflict scenarios could lead to dramatic trading ranges in crude oil prices throughout the year. The analysis goes beyond simple supply and demand relationships, quantifying the direct impact of political instability on the market.

**TD Securities Oil Price Forecast: Interpreting the Charts** As a leading global investment bank, TD Securities has released a comprehensive chart-based outlook for the crude oil market. The analysis identifies several key geopolitical flashpoints that are major drivers of price movements. As a result, the company is forecasting a potential price range for Brent crude of $65 to $115 per barrel, rather than a single price target. This wide range reflects the high degree of uncertainty in the current geopolitical landscape. The methodology relies heavily on historical volatility patterns and scenario modeling. Furthermore, the charts highlight key technical levels that could act as support or resistance depending on news flow. For example, in their model, a sustained break above $90 is directly correlated with an escalation of conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. Conversely, a drop below $70 aligns with the resolution of several ongoing regional disputes. This approach provides traders and analysts with a framework, rather than a prediction, to navigate the market. **Geopolitical Risk: The Main Engine of Oil Market Volatility** The current energy market narrative has shifted from pure fundamentals to geopolitics. While inventory data and OPEC+ production decisions remain relevant, their impact is now often overshadowed by headline risk. TD Securities' research highlights this shift by mapping price reactions to specific events over the past 24 months. The correlation between regional conflict news and intraday price spikes has increased significantly. The following regions are particularly contributing to this risk premium: * The Middle East (especially tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia) * The conflict between Russia and Ukraine and its impact on European energy supplies * Political instability in major oil-producing countries such as Nigeria and Libya Each region presents different variables, but overall they inject a layer of persistent uncertainty that charts struggle to fully digest in advance. **Expert Analysis: Interpreting Technical Signals** TD Securities' senior commodity strategist emphasized that their charts are tools for gauging market sentiment and positioning, not crystal balls. The wide price range itself is a signal that the market is pricing in multiple conflicting outcomes simultaneously. When one scenario is perceived as more likely than another, this often leads to sharp price swings. For example, a single drone strike on infrastructure could cause prices to rapidly reprice from the lower end of their forecast range to the middle or upper end. In addition, the analysis examines open interest and trading volume.