Bitcoin Holds $70,000 as Fed Rate Cut Odds Plunge Below 1% in March

On March 12, Bitcoin traded near $70,000 as U.S. February inflation data met expectations, and the probability of a Fed rate cut in March fell below 1%. Market hopes for a near-term policy shift are fading, and Bitcoin's price is significantly influenced by Fed policy.

On March 12, Bitcoin's price hovered around $70,000. U.S. inflation data for February aligned with market expectations, and according to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut at the Fed meeting on March 18 has plummeted to below 1%. All four inflation data points matched Wall Street's consensus forecasts. This report, consistent with expectations, has virtually eliminated any market hopes for a policy pivot in the near term.

Bitcoin Holds $70,000 as Fed Rate Cut Odds Plunge Below 1% in March插图
The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 99% probability of maintaining current interest rates in March. Bitcoin's market capitalization remains stable at $1.4 trillion, with market sentiment in a state of extreme fear, registering a reading of 18.
Bitcoin Holds $70,000 as Fed Rate Cut Odds Plunge Below 1% in March插图1
On-chain data shows: The Federal Reserve's policy stalemate is keeping Bitcoin's price fluctuating within a certain range. The Federal Reserve will release its latest dot plot at the March 18 meeting, which will reveal whether officials still expect rate cuts in 2026 or have shifted to a long-term strategy of maintaining unchanged interest rates. JPMorgan Chase even predicts a possible rate hike in 2027.

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