Iran Conflict Pushes Mortgage Rates to 6.19%, Bitcoin Holds at $70,400

On March 11, U.S. mortgage rates climbed to 6.19% as the Iranian war drove oil prices above $100 a barrel and U.S. Treasury yields rose to 4.21%, effectively extinguishing hopes of a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut. This chain reaction is putting pressure on the cryptocurrency market, although Bitcoin prices remain near $70,400. Chain Reaction of Oil, Treasuries, and Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates are closely correlated with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield. A 25 basis point increase in Treasury yields directly leads to a 20 basis point increase in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate. Diminished Rate Cut Hopes, Bitcoin Holds at $70,400 Despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, Bitcoin has shown relative strength. In contrast, the S&P 500 fell by about 1% over the same period, gold fell by 3%, and silver fell by nearly 9%.

ETF Flows Show Tug-of-War Among Institutional Investors In February, Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced a net outflow of $3.8 billion, the worst month since the products launched in January 2024. Meanwhile, gold ETFs absorbed $16 billion in funds. The Importance of Mortgage Rates to Cryptocurrency The European Central Bank has warned that a prolonged Middle East conflict could trigger both higher inflation and weaker economic growth. This situation would leave central banks with no room to cut interest rates.