Expert Analysis: Bitcoin Outlook and Potential Risk Factors in 2026

Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards shared his views on the current state of Bitcoin (BTC), his predictions for 2026, and the major risks facing the market in a recent livestream. Edwards believes that, based on historical data, Bitcoin is currently in a "value zone," but he also reminded investors to pay attention to the threat of quantum computing and the impact of institutional capital flows. When discussing the overall market situation, Edwards stated that investors trying to find the "bottom" is a flawed strategy. He analyzed Bitcoin's current price movement and pointed out: "We can say that the price is closer to the bottom than the top. We are in a deep value zone, but that doesn't mean the price will go up immediately."

Edwards emphasized the "production cost" data based on mining costs, pointing out that the $50,000 to $60,000 range represents strong support and a value zone for Bitcoin. The most notable part of the livestream was the discussion about the future "quantum risk" of Bitcoin. Edwards stated that Bitcoin core developers have not fully paid attention to this issue. He reminded the audience that due to quantum uncertainty, individuals/institutions including Kevin O'Leary and VanEck have limited or withdrawn their Bitcoin allocations. Although the Ethereum Foundation has made quantum security its top priority, he was surprised that Bitcoin was not even in its top 100 priorities.

He believes that Bitcoin may find it difficult to reach new all-time highs (ATH) before this risk is resolved, but specific measures to solve the problem will quickly push up the price. Edwards pointed out that the correlation between gold and Bitcoin has recently broken down. He mentioned the ratio showing gold's performance relative to the S&P 500 index, and said that gold is still in its early stages and may perform better than stocks in the coming years. Regarding global liquidity, he said that Trump-era policies and potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts create a "perfect backdrop" for risk assets, but oil prices rising above $100 would herald danger for the stock market. Edwards believes that the nearly 200 "Bitcoin Treasury Companies" (publicly listed companies holding Bitcoin) in the market are unsustainable and predicts that these companies will eventually merge or go bankrupt. He pointed out that while the strategy of companies like MicroStrategy buying Bitcoin through borrowing may generate leverage in the short term, in the long run, they will eventually have to evolve their business model into a "bank/loan".