Market concerns stem from the current chart structure, which closely resembles the patterns seen during the 2022 cryptocurrency bear market. Historical data shows that this pattern typically undergoes several phases before a significant price drop.
Some observers believe that Bitcoin has completed the third phase of this pattern. If this structure persists, the market may face further downside risks. This possibility raises an important question: Is this rebound merely temporary?
Global markets also show signs of weakness
Bitcoin's movements are rarely isolated. The broader financial environment often influences cryptocurrency sentiment, and some traditional markets have begun to show cracks.
The major U.S. stock indices experienced significant declines in recent trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by over 739 points, a drop of 1.56%. The Nasdaq 100 index decreased by 1.73%, while the S&P 500 index dropped by approximately 1.52%. These declines reflect a broader risk-off sentiment in the financial markets. When investors reduce their exposure to stocks, cryptocurrencies often face similar pressures.
The weakness in the stock market and the sideways movement in the commodity market have led some analysts to question whether the cryptocurrency market has fully absorbed the broader sentiment shift.
In other words, if traditional markets continue to decline, will Bitcoin eventually follow?
Reappearance of the 2022 bear market pattern
Chart observers often study past market cycles to identify recurring structures. Currently, a striking pattern resembles the bearish flag formation that appeared during the downturn in 2022.
At that time, Bitcoin formed a series of rebounds that failed to break through key resistance levels. Each rebound generated hope among investors, only for the market to resume its downward trend.
The current structure looks very similar. Price action suggests a gradual bottoming pattern rather than a sharp reversal. Analysts focused on this pattern believe the market may still need to decline further to establish a true bottom.
However, the situation remains complex. Today's market supply-demand dynamics and mean-reversion patterns differ from those four years ago. This difference raises an interesting thought: Will history partially repeat itself?
$74,000 is the key level
Short-term price action is now centered around a critical level. Traders continue to closely monitor the $74,000 resistance zone.
Some analysts believe that a strong breakout above this level could invalidate the bearish outlook. If buyers break through $74,000 with strong trading volume, momentum could push Bitcoin into the $80,000 to $85,000 range.
Currently, no breakout has occurred. The market is approaching this level but has yet to convert it into a support level. Until then, uncertainty remains. Meanwhile, the long-term backdrop is still important. Bitcoin's current trading price is approximately 43% lower than its all-time high of $126,025 reached in October 2025. This gap highlights the previous scale.