The realized price metric for short-term investors refers to the average price at which Bitcoin was purchased over the past 155 days. By comparing the annual growth of this metric, we can determine whether investors are buying at levels higher than last year's prices. When the growth rate is negative, it indicates that the price at which recent buyers acquired Bitcoin is lower than last year, suggesting that short-term holders are generally facing financial losses.
Currently, this metric has dropped to -2.4%, indicating that Bitcoin held by short-term investors is in a loss position compared to a year ago, with the number of underwater positions in the market increasing.
Data analysis from CryptoQuant shows that from 2015 to 2026, there have been two significant declines in this metric, occurring in 2018-2019 and 2022-2023. The first decline coincided with the bear market following Bitcoin's historic surge to $19,783. The second occurred after Bitcoin climbed to nearly $69,000, followed by a drop to $15,500.
Currently, the blue band of this metric is close to zero, sitting at -2.4%, indicating that the extent of losses for short-term holders is more severe than during any previous downturn.
So, what could signal a market reversal?
A negative change in the realized price growth rate is typically accompanied by a weakening of market momentum and a decline in speculative activity. This may expose potential vulnerabilities in the market but does not necessarily trigger a dramatic price collapse. Instead, it often indicates a gradual loss of market energy.
Market experts point out: “For recovery to occur, new buyers must purchase at gradually increasing prices, which could be due to a rise in Bitcoin prices or new investors replacing current holders who are in a loss position.”
Both scenarios are crucial for recovery—either rising spot prices or an influx of new buyers—have yet to materialize, resulting in the metric remaining in negative territory. Future market dynamics will significantly influence whether new capital inflows can alleviate the losses faced by short-term holders.
Market analysts suggest that the recovery of this metric hinges on whether Bitcoin can rebound from this decline, which largely depends on future corrections and whether buyer interest can surpass the financial difficulties currently experienced by short-term investors.