The realized price for short-term investors refers to the average cost of Bitcoin purchased over the past 155 days. The annual growth rate of this indicator measures whether the current average cost is higher than it was a year ago. A positive growth rate indicates that new buyers are paying prices above last year’s levels, reflecting increased market participation and optimism. Conversely, a negative growth rate suggests that recently entered short-term holders are purchasing at prices lower than last year, implying they are generally facing losses.
Currently, this indicator stands at -2.4%, with comprehensive data showing that short-term investors' current holding costs are below the entry prices from a year ago, indicating a greater prevalence of underwater positions.
According to charts from CryptoQuant, covering data from 2015 to 2026, two historical phases are highlighted—2018-2019 and 2022-2023—during which the indicator experienced significant declines. The first occurred during the prolonged bear market following Bitcoin's drop from its historical high of $19,783, while the second took place after the cryptocurrency reached an all-time high of $69,000, only to fall to a low of $15,500.
The blue band in the current chart is approaching zero, now down to -2.4%, and well below the threshold of 140. These figures indicate that the losses currently endured by short-term holders are far more severe than in earlier periods.
For this indicator to recover, short-term holders need to start buying Bitcoin at higher price levels, either due to an increase in the spot price of Bitcoin or because recent loss-bearing investors are replaced by new buyers willing to pay higher prices. Sustained high demand is crucial for the indicator's rebound.
Current data suggests that neither scenario has yet materialized, with the indicator remaining in negative territory. The continuation of this downward trend will depend on the overall market performance in the coming weeks and whether new capital can absorb the existing losses of short-term holders.