On-chain data suggests that Ethereum may be poised for a bullish trend. An analysis of investor accumulation reveals a low-resistance zone, and if specific technical levels are breached, the price could rise to $2800. This setup is based on the distribution of purchase prices among Ethereum holders. However, the derivatives market is sending more cautious signals. As Ethereum enters a critical phase of the market cycle, it is caught between accumulation momentum and trader hesitation.
Sparse Supply Zone Paves the Way for $2800
This setup creates a relatively open technical channel above the current market, and a breakthrough above the $2200 resistance level could lead to a rapid increase.
Despite Bullish Signals, the Derivatives Market Remains Cautious
Although on-chain data paints a favorable picture, the activity in the derivatives market is more complex. Open interest in Ethereum futures has risen from $9 billion to $10.9 billion, indicating that speculative activity has re-emerged as prices push toward the $2200 region. This increase reflects heightened trader participation, typically occurring during periods of increased volatility.
However, this enthusiasm quickly waned. After testing this resistance level, open interest fell by about 6%, suggesting that some participants opted to reduce risk exposure or take profits. Meanwhile, data shows that 59.4% of futures positions on Binance remain bullish, and this relatively balanced distribution does not reflect a large-scale consensus in the market.