A recent analysis report indicates that Bitcoin has demonstrated remarkable performance during significant geopolitical and financial upheavals over the past few years. The report, which deeply examined seven major international crisis events, found that Bitcoin consistently achieved positive returns in all these scenarios, while stocks and gold experienced declines at various points.
Bitcoin's Performance Record Across Multiple Crises
The report meticulously reviewed market reactions to seven distinct events, ranging from escalating US-Iran tensions, the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, to the US regional banking crisis. Researchers compared the returns of the S&P 500, gold, and Bitcoin over 60 days following each event. Data shows that after the US-Iran standoff, the S&P 500 fell by 7% and gold rose by 6%, while Bitcoin surged by 20% during the same period.
In March 2020, as the COVID-19 pandemic swept the globe and triggered severe market volatility, Bitcoin once again took the lead. During the market's recovery phase, Bitcoin climbed 21%, compared to 3% for gold and 2% for the S&P 500. When the Russia-Ukraine conflict erupted in February 2022, gold dropped 9% and the S&P 500 gained 3%, while Bitcoin emerged as the top-performing asset with a 15% increase.
Notably, during the US regional banking crisis in March 2023, Bitcoin recorded its best performance during a crisis, with a 32% gain. In contrast, gold rose 11% and the S&P 500 only grew by 4%. The only instance where Bitcoin underperformed both stocks and gold was during the financial shock surrounding Japanese Yen volatility in August 2024, when Bitcoin only increased by 3%, while the S&P 500 and gold rose by 7% and 9% respectively.
Average Returns and Key Observations
Overall, the report found that Bitcoin achieved positive returns in all seven crisis periods reviewed, averaging approximately 18% within the 60-day window. The S&P 500 and gold saw average gains of about 3% and 4%, respectively. It is noteworthy that while stocks and gold experienced negative returns in two of the examined events, Bitcoin never did, with even its lowest return remaining above zero.
Recent Developments in Iran Crisis
The report provides updated data concerning the Iran-related crisis that began in February 2026. Within 13 days of the crisis onset, Bitcoin had already risen 14%, while both the stock market and gold turned negative. However, as the full 60-day observation period is not yet complete, the final gains may still fluctuate with changes in the Iranian situation and broader macroeconomic trends.
The report does not explicitly categorize Bitcoin as a traditional safe-haven asset but rather focuses on its actual performance during real-world crises. A key finding is that, with the exception of one financial shock event in 2024, Bitcoin generated higher returns than stocks and gold in six out of the seven analyzed events.