These two developments are conditional: Analysts at Santiment point out that confirming a market bottom requires retail investors to stop buying, rather than continuing to participate.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $71,350, having risen about 6.3% over the past week.
On-Chain Data Analysis
Santiment's holder distribution data shows that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC now control 68.17% of the total Bitcoin supply, up from 68.07% a week ago.
Retail Concerns
Santiment's analysis relies on the simultaneous fulfillment of two conditions to confirm bottom signals: whales must continue to accumulate, while retail wallets—those holding smaller amounts—must reduce their positions.
Currently, the second condition has not been met. Retail investors have continued to buy throughout the correction, and Santiment notes that this is typically associated with further market declines rather than a bottom.
“Historically, markets tend to bottom when the 'masses' lose hope,” Santiment states. “The persistent optimism among retail investors is currently the biggest obstacle to confirming a bottom.”
Crypto Fear and Greed Index
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index registered a score of 16 on Sunday, indicating “extreme fear,” which sends a contradictory signal: sentiment surveys show fear, while retail trading patterns indicate continued buying.
ETF Background
The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $250.92 million on Tuesday, marking the strongest day in five days, closing Friday with a cumulative increase of $180.33 million, according to SoSoValue data.
Currently, the total net assets of the spot Bitcoin ETF are approximately $91.83 billion, with a cumulative net inflow of $56.14 billion.
The last similar five-day increase occurred from November 25 to December 2, 2025, during which total inflows amounted to $284.61 million, about 37% of the current week's total.