Slightly Better-Than-Expected Non-Farm Payrolls Data: Market Expects Fed to Hold Rates Steady in March

Despite the latest non-farm payrolls data being slightly better than expected, the market generally predicts that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged at its March meeting. This expectation aligns with the Fed's previously emphasized "patient observation" stance – policymakers prefer to confirm inflation trends through multiple sets of data rather than relying on a single report to make judgments.

The moderate-than-expected increase in employment did not trigger market concerns about interest rate hikes. The key lies in the continued slowdown in wage growth and the steady recovery in the labor force participation rate. This improvement in the supply-demand relationship helps alleviate inflationary pressures and creates conditions for future policy easing. If this trend continues, it will provide the Federal Reserve with more sufficient reasons to keep interest rates stable.

The market's sensitivity to subsequent data has significantly increased. Some analysts point out that past non-farm payrolls data often undergo downward revisions, which limits the guiding significance of single-month data. Therefore, investors are now shifting their focus to the next set of core inflation indicators, especially the core PCE price index – the inflation measure most valued by the Federal Reserve. In addition, the broad cooling of the labor market is also receiving close attention. If wage growth in multiple industries slows down simultaneously, while working hours remain stable and more people return to the labor force, it will strengthen the "soft landing" narrative and further support the policy of maintaining a patient stance. In the short term, the interest rate futures market shows a very low probability of a rate cut in March. The market is more focused on the data path in April and beyond. Bitcoin's price is currently near $73,426, with the RSI in a neutral position. The technical aspect does not show a clear direction, reflecting that risk assets as a whole are still dominated by macro policies rather than their own drivers.