Bitcoin has recently reclaimed the $70,000 mark, demonstrating significant market resilience. This surge is closely tied to the trading behavior of long-term holders (LTHs) and robust inflows into institutional ETFs.
The LTH-SOPR indicator currently stands at 1.01. This metric assesses whether investors holding Bitcoin for over 155 days are selling at a profit or loss. A reading above 1 signifies overall profitability, while a reading below 1 indicates investors are selling at a loss. The current level of 1.01 suggests that trading is occurring near the cost basis, with neither large-scale profit-taking nor significant sell-offs observed.
Reviewing historical data from early 2022 to March 2026, the LTH-SOPR remained below 1 for an extended period during the 2022 bear market, reflecting losses incurred by long-term holders. However, since 2023, the indicator has consistently stayed above 1, signaling a recovery in investor confidence and stable trading strategies.
In the face of substantial selling pressure, the Bitcoin market has absorbed significant sell volumes without a drastic price decline, highlighting the underlying support and demand at current price levels.
Institutional spot Bitcoin ETFs have played a crucial role in bolstering market demand. For instance, between March 9th and 13th, these ETFs recorded net inflows of $763.4 million. On March 13th alone, $180.4 million flowed in, effectively counteracting the day's selling pressure and stabilizing the market.
Notably, large institutional investors have not shied away from market volatility; instead, they have continued to acquire Bitcoin sold by retail investors. The ETF inflows have significantly enhanced the market's capacity to absorb Bitcoin, allowing large quantities to be digested with ease.
Another key metric, the 'Puell Multiple,' is currently at 0.60, indicating that miners' current revenue is below historical averages. Readings below 1 typically reduce the likelihood of miners being forced to sell Bitcoin due to insufficient income. However, if the metric approaches 0.50, it could prompt a market reassessment. Concurrently, the realized price of $54,400 is viewed as a significant support level, potentially mirroring previous cycle lows.
In conclusion, despite the potential risk of Bitcoin falling below $54,000, the sustained LTH-SOPR above 1 appears to lay a positive foundation for the short-term market outlook. Market observers continue to view $70,000 as a significant milestone for Bitcoin.