'Death Notices' and Market Dynamics: A Correlation
Published charts reveal a strong correlation between Bitcoin's numerous 'death notices' and heightened market anxiety. Early 'death notices' from 2013 to 2016, when Bitcoin traded below $1,000, are now almost insignificant on the chart. In contrast, each new all-time high or sharp pullback since 2017 has seen a resurgence of these pessimistic predictions.
The 2022 bear market serves as a prime example, where institutions and commentators declared Bitcoin 'dead' following the FTX collapse, with prices hovering between $20,000 and $30,000. More recently, criticism peaked again near $71,000 after Bitcoin's subsequent drop from its all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025.
Emerging Patterns in the Data
A deeper dive into the charts uncovers a significant pattern: clusters of 'death notices' often mark major market bottoms or mid-cycle corrections. Early pronouncements below $1,000 now appear as statistical noise, while the 2018 notices around $6,000-$10,000 and the 2022 cluster between $15,000-$20,000 are more concentrated.
This persistent trend highlights 'death notices' as a barometer of market sentiment. Prolonged price declines lead many analysts and observers to believe Bitcoin is beyond hope, prompting another wave of pessimistic headlines. However, historical data clearly indicates that this wave of pessimism often creates significant buying opportunities for investors willing to take the contrarian view.
Investment Strategy and Performance Review
Data shows that if an investor had purchased $100 of Bitcoin during each of the 471 'death notices' since 2010, their total expenditure would amount to $47,100. Due to subsequent bull markets and market cycles, this portfolio would be worth a staggering $74.8 million as of March 15, 2026.
These gains are not attributed to perfect market timing but rather to a systematic and disciplined approach—buying even in the most pessimistic environments. This strategy requires no technical analysis or market forecasting, relying instead on the courage to buy when sentiment is at its lowest. Each investment during these periods demonstrates the long-term profitability potential of going against the grain.
The report emphasizes this consistent success: 'The only uncertainty is whether the 471st announcement will break the pattern of previous outcomes. Existing data clearly shows the results achieved by investors following this method in the previous 470 instances.'
In conclusion, history suggests that the emergence of 'death notices' during significant Bitcoin downturns has only a temporary impact on price. Long-term investors have repeatedly capitalized on these moments of widespread pessimism to achieve substantial returns.