Main Findings
Data Overview
Eight million node observations, 658 submarine cables, and 385 confirmed failure events over 11 years. Researchers found that the Bitcoin network can absorb physical disruptions with almost no noticeable damage.
In recorded cable failures, in 87% of cases, offline Bitcoin nodes were less than 5%. The average impact on nodes during failures was -1.5%, with a median of -0.4%. Most cable damage had minimal impact on the network.
The threshold for truly damaging random failures lies between 72% and 92%, meaning all international cables would need to fail simultaneously. This scenario is unrealistic.
In March 2024, disturbances on the seabed off Côte d'Ivoire caused seven to eight cables to break simultaneously, resulting in a 43% drop in regional internet capacity. The number of affected Bitcoin nodes globally was between 5 and 7, accounting for only 0.03% of the network.
Why the Network Won't Collapse
Researchers modeled Bitcoin as a three-layer system: the physical layer consists of submarine cables, the routing layer is operated by companies like Comcast and AWS, and Bitcoin's peer-to-peer network sits atop this.
These layers are loosely coupled. Physical failures do not automatically propagate upwards. When a route breaks, traffic is rerouted, and the network remains unaware.
By 2026, it is expected that about 64% of reachable Bitcoin nodes will operate through the Tor network. Initially seen as a privacy measure, Tor is now reframed as a structural asset. Tor nodes route through obfuscated paths that are independent of the geographical locations of physical cables. When regional cables fail, Tor-based nodes are less affected. Researchers found that the adoption of Tor significantly enhances the network's resilience.
Real Threats
The study identified two genuine vulnerabilities. First, targeted attacks on specific bottlenecks could lower the failure threshold from 92% to 20%. Coordinated attacks on high-traffic cables differ from random failures.
Secondly—more relevant in 2026—the network's routing layer is heavily concentrated among five providers: Hetzner, OVHcloud, Comcast, AWS, and Google Cloud. Regulatory pressure or coordinated actions targeting just these five could lead to a 10% network disconnection. This is almost equivalent to cutting off nearly all submarine cables on Earth, achievable by merely applying pressure to five companies.
The threat does not come from the seabed but from server rooms. As discussions about Bitcoin becoming a strategic reserve for governments grow, domestic regulatory pressures on cloud service providers are more feasible than physical cable damage.
Quantum Threats
In addition to current infrastructure threats, the Bitcoin community is beginning to formally address a long-term issue: quantum computing.
The risks are specific. Quantum computers threaten ECDSA—the digital signature system used to prove Bitcoin ownership. While SHA-256 provides security during mining, it is more resilient. The issue lies in...