Cryptocurrency analyst Axel Adler has released a new prediction model designed to assess the price outlook for Bitcoin over the next five years.
The analysis combines a “power law” model with the convergence of halving cycles, revealing a potential price range for Bitcoin between 2026 and 2031.
According to data shared by Adler, Bitcoin is currently in its fifth halving cycle (Epoch 5), with the next halving expected in April 2028. The model calculates a power law median price of approximately $98,559, about 27% higher than the current price. The analysis indicates that the lower bound (Q01 base) for the current cycle is $63,558, while the upper bound (Q99 cap) is $172,269.
Adler predicts that by March of next year, i.e., March 2027, the median price is expected to rise to $130,720, with a potential price range between $84,433 and $228,847.
The model's two-year forecast shows that by March 2028, the median price of Bitcoin could reach $171,040. During this period, the lower bound of the price range is estimated at $110,476, and the upper bound could reach $299,436. The forecast for March 2029 covers the period after the expected halving in April 2028, indicating that Bitcoin will enter its sixth cycle (Epoch 6), with the median price potentially rising to $220,480. The estimated price range for that year is between $169,618 and $308,526.
Adler's long-term predictions show a continued upward trend. The model calculates a median price of $280,607 for March 2030. During this period, the potential price range for Bitcoin is estimated to be between $215,874 and $392,664. In the five-year outlook, the median price target for March 2031 is $353,035. The model's upper bound extends to $494,016, while the lower bound is $271,594.