VanEck's CEO pointed out that Bitcoin's price is undergoing a typical cyclical adjustment, with structural forces accumulating behind the current volatile pattern. Recently, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has continued to attract institutional capital inflows, with a net inflow of $458 million on Tuesday, marking one of the highest single-day levels this quarter. Over the past three trading days, total inflows exceeded $1.1 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT fund contributing nearly half of the funds, indicating that mainstream financial institutions still have a strong willingness to allocate to crypto assets.
Despite short-term fluctuations caused by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East over the weekend, which led to about $300 million in long positions being liquidated on some platforms, the overall market resilience remains notable. The implied volatility in the options market briefly surged to 93% before quickly retreating, indicating that market participants are more focused on hedging against sudden event risks rather than anticipating a systemic collapse.
Since February, Bitcoin's price has been oscillating within a narrow range of $60,000 to $70,000. Although it reached a high of $69,213 on Monday, it failed to break through the critical resistance level of $70,000 established at the end of January. Analysts believe that current market sentiment is still suppressed by geopolitical uncertainties, with no signs of de-escalation from the U.S., Israel, and Iran, leading investors to adopt a wait-and-see attitude.
From a technical cycle perspective, if Bitcoin can firmly establish itself above $70,000 with increased trading volume, it may initiate a new upward trend. Conversely, if it continues to consolidate, it will still be constrained by the interplay of ETF capital flows, geopolitical risks, and the halving cycle. VanEck emphasizes that a true market bottom is often not achieved overnight but is shaped by a combination of macro environment, institutional behavior, and market psychology. Investors should pay attention to the synchronous changes in price and capital flows to identify potential trend reversal points.